Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
