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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president commented to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would serve as guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not received the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the issue of land. One proposal involves Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security formations instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he added.