Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
